Wednesday, February 24, 2010

The station errors in CRUTEM3 and HadCRUT3 are incorrect

I'm told by a BBC journalist that the Met Office has said through their press office that the errors that were pointed out by Ilya Goz and I have been confirmed. The station errors are being incorrectly calculated (almost certainly because of a bug in the software) and that the Met Office is rechecking all the error data.

I haven't heard directly from the Met Office yet; apparently the Met Office is waiting to write to me when they have rechecked their entire dataset.

The outcome is likely to be a small reduction in the error bars surrounding the temperature trend. The trend itself should stay the same, but the uncertainty about the trend will be slightly less.

2 comments:

andyscrase said...

Good effort. I hope that the Met Office recognise the value of external review and reward you accordingly.

Nick Barnes said...

Excellent work. Seems like someone put the divide-by-N on the wrong line....