Wednesday, February 24, 2010

The station errors in CRUTEM3 and HadCRUT3 are incorrect

I'm told by a BBC journalist that the Met Office has said through their press office that the errors that were pointed out by Ilya Goz and I have been confirmed. The station errors are being incorrectly calculated (almost certainly because of a bug in the software) and that the Met Office is rechecking all the error data.

I haven't heard directly from the Met Office yet; apparently the Met Office is waiting to write to me when they have rechecked their entire dataset.

The outcome is likely to be a small reduction in the error bars surrounding the temperature trend. The trend itself should stay the same, but the uncertainty about the trend will be slightly less.


andyscrase said...

Good effort. I hope that the Met Office recognise the value of external review and reward you accordingly.

Nick Barnes said...

Excellent work. Seems like someone put the divide-by-N on the wrong line....